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Concept: Sensitivity and specificity

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We investigated whether sprint interval training (SIT) was a time-efficient exercise strategy to improve insulin sensitivity and other indices of cardiometabolic health to the same extent as traditional moderate-intensity continuous training (MICT). SIT involved 1 minute of intense exercise within a 10-minute time commitment, whereas MICT involved 50 minutes of continuous exercise per session.

Concepts: Improve, Obesity, Sensitivity and specificity, Exercise, Running, Endurance training, Interval training, Long slow distance

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Background Bronchoscopy is frequently nondiagnostic in patients with pulmonary lesions suspected to be lung cancer. This often results in additional invasive testing, although many lesions are benign. We sought to validate a bronchial-airway gene-expression classifier that could improve the diagnostic performance of bronchoscopy. Methods Current or former smokers undergoing bronchoscopy for suspected lung cancer were enrolled at 28 centers in two multicenter prospective studies (AEGIS-1 and AEGIS-2). A gene-expression classifier was measured in epithelial cells collected from the normal-appearing mainstem bronchus to assess the probability of lung cancer. Results A total of 639 patients in AEGIS-1 (298 patients) and AEGIS-2 (341 patients) met the criteria for inclusion. A total of 43% of bronchoscopic examinations were nondiagnostic for lung cancer, and invasive procedures were performed after bronchoscopy in 35% of patients with benign lesions. In AEGIS-1, the classifier had an area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.78 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.73 to 0.83), a sensitivity of 88% (95% CI, 83 to 92), and a specificity of 47% (95% CI, 37 to 58). In AEGIS-2, the classifier had an AUC of 0.74 (95% CI, 0.68 to 0.80), a sensitivity of 89% (95% CI, 84 to 92), and a specificity of 47% (95% CI, 36 to 59). The combination of the classifier plus bronchoscopy had a sensitivity of 96% (95% CI, 93 to 98) in AEGIS-1 and 98% (95% CI, 96 to 99) in AEGIS-2, independent of lesion size and location. In 101 patients with an intermediate pretest probability of cancer, the negative predictive value of the classifier was 91% (95% CI, 75 to 98) among patients with a nondiagnostic bronchoscopic examination. Conclusions The gene-expression classifier improved the diagnostic performance of bronchoscopy for the detection of lung cancer. In intermediate-risk patients with a nondiagnostic bronchoscopic examination, a negative classifier score provides support for a more conservative diagnostic approach. (Funded by Allegro Diagnostics and others; AEGIS-1 and AEGIS-2 ClinicalTrials.gov numbers, NCT01309087 and NCT00746759 .).

Concepts: Pulmonology, Lung, Lung cancer, Positive predictive value, Negative predictive value, Sensitivity and specificity, Carcinoma, Lesion

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While the cost of whole genome sequencing (WGS) is approaching the realm of routine medical tests, it remains too tardy to help guide the management of many acute medical conditions. Rapid WGS is imperative in light of growing evidence of its utility in acute care, such as in diagnosis of genetic diseases in very ill infants, and genotype-guided choice of chemotherapy at cancer relapse. In such situations, delayed, empiric, or phenotype-based clinical decisions may meet with substantial morbidity or mortality. We previously described a rapid WGS method, STATseq, with a sensitivity of >96 % for nucleotide variants that allowed a provisional diagnosis of a genetic disease in 50 h. Here improvements in sequencing run time, read alignment, and variant calling are described that enable 26-h time to provisional molecular diagnosis with >99.5 % sensitivity and specificity of genotypes. STATseq appears to be an appropriate strategy for acutely ill patients with potentially actionable genetic diseases.

Concepts: DNA, Medicine, Genetics, Bioinformatics, Cancer, Disease, Genetic disorder, Sensitivity and specificity

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The technology for evaluating patient-provider interactions in psychotherapy-observational coding-has not changed in 70 years. It is labor-intensive, error prone, and expensive, limiting its use in evaluating psychotherapy in the real world. Engineering solutions from speech and language processing provide new methods for the automatic evaluation of provider ratings from session recordings. The primary data are 200 Motivational Interviewing (MI) sessions from a study on MI training methods with observer ratings of counselor empathy. Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) was used to transcribe sessions, and the resulting words were used in a text-based predictive model of empathy. Two supporting datasets trained the speech processing tasks including ASR (1200 transcripts from heterogeneous psychotherapy sessions and 153 transcripts and session recordings from 5 MI clinical trials). The accuracy of computationally-derived empathy ratings were evaluated against human ratings for each provider. Computationally-derived empathy scores and classifications (high vs. low) were highly accurate against human-based codes and classifications, with a correlation of 0.65 and F-score (a weighted average of sensitivity and specificity) of 0.86, respectively. Empathy prediction using human transcription as input (as opposed to ASR) resulted in a slight increase in prediction accuracies, suggesting that the fully automatic system with ASR is relatively robust. Using speech and language processing methods, it is possible to generate accurate predictions of provider performance in psychotherapy from audio recordings alone. This technology can support large-scale evaluation of psychotherapy for dissemination and process studies.

Concepts: Transcription, Positive predictive value, Type I and type II errors, Sensitivity and specificity, Prediction, Speech recognition, Speech processing, Speech synthesis

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To investigate the value of post-traumatic pronator quadratus (PQ) fat pad sign as a reliable predictor of subtle wrist fractures.

Concepts: Sensitivity and specificity

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Measurement of endometrial thickness is an important tool in the assessment of women with postmenopausal bleeding, but the role of endometrial thickness measurement by ultrasound in asymptomatic women is unclear. The aims of this study were to determine: (1) the normal endometrial thickness measured by ultrasonography, (2) the prevalence of serious endometrial pathology and (3) the sensitivity and specificity of endometrial thickness measurement by transvaginal ultrasonography (TVS) for diagnosing premalignant and malignant endometrial disease in asymptomatic postmenopausal women.

Concepts: Cancer, Sensitivity and specificity, Endometrial cancer

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INTRODUCTION: Detection of asymptomatic adnexal tumours in postmenopausal women has increased due to wider use of diagnostic ultrasound and imaging quality improvements. Reliable methods to differentiate between benign and malignant tumours are required to avoid delays in treating ovarian cancer and to prevent unnecessary interventions for benign lesions. In the UK, the Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists has issued guidance for the management of adnexal cysts in postmenopausal women, which is considered standard in routine clinical practice. The protocol utilises the Risk of Malignancy Index to assess the risk of adnexal lesion being malignant. This protocol has a relatively high intervention rate in order to avoid a delay in a cancer diagnosis. The Simple Rules Protocol designed by International Ovarian Tumour Analysis Group reports a low false-positive rate in the diagnosis of ovarian cancer without a loss of sensitivity and therefore has the potential to reduce unnecessary interventions in asymptomatic postmenopausal women with benign cysts. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: 140 postmenopausal women aged 40-80, with incidentally detected adnexal tumours on ultrasound scan will be recruited to this study. They will be randomly allocated, to be assessed and managed according to either of the two protocols under investigation. In both arms of the study the tumours will be classified into three groups: high, intermediate or low risk of malignancy. Women with high risk of malignancy will be referred for management in a tertiary cancer centre, women with low-risk tumours will be managed expectantly, while those with intermediate risk findings have surgery in their local hospital units. Analysis will be on an intention-to-treat basis. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Research ethical approval was granted by the North London Research Ethical Committee 2 (10/H0724/48). Trial results will be published according to the CONSORT statement. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Registration at http://www.controlled-trials.com/ISRCTN89034131/. ISRCTN89034131.

Concepts: Cancer, Oncology, Sensitivity and specificity, Hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancer, Benign tumor, Ovarian cyst, BRCA2, Hysterectomy

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Background Copy number variation (CNV) is an important structural variation (SV) in human genome. Various studies have shown that CNVs are associated with complex diseases. Traditional CNV detection methods such as fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) and array comparative genomic hybridization (aCGH) suffer from low resolution. The next generation sequencing (NGS) technique promises a higher resolution detection of CNVs and several methods were recently proposed for realizing such a promise. However, the performances of these methods are not robust under some conditions, e.g., some of them may fail to detect CNVs of short sizes. There has been a strong demand for reliable detection of CNVs from high resolution NGS data.Results A novel and robust method to detect CNV from short sequencing reads is proposed in this study. The detection of CNV is modeled as a change-point detection from the read depth (RD) signal derived from the NGS, which is fitted with a total variation (TV) penalized least squares model. The performance (e.g., sensitivity and specificity) of the proposed approach are evaluated by comparison with several recently published methods on both simulated and real data from the 1000 Genomes Project.Conclusions The experimental results showed that both the true positive rate and false positive rate of the proposed detection method do not change significantly for CNVs with different copy numbers and lengthes, when compared with several existing methods. Therefore, our proposed approach results in a more reliable detection of CNVs than the existing methods.

Concepts: Gene, Genetics, Copy number variation, Human genome, Genome, Type I and type II errors, Sensitivity and specificity, Array comparative genomic hybridization

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BACKGROUND: Laboratory tests to assess novel oral anticoagulants (NOACs) are under evaluation. Routine monitoring is unnecessary, but under special circumstances bioactivity assessment becomes crucial. We analyzed the effects of NOACs on coagulation tests and the availability of specific assays at different laboratories.METHODS: Plasma samples spiked with dabigatran (Dabi; 120 and 300 μg/L) or rivaroxaban (Riva; 60, 146, and 305 μg/L) were sent to 115 and 38 European laboratories, respectively. International normalized ratio (INR) and activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT) were analyzed for all samples; thrombin time (TT) was analyzed specifically for Dabi and calibrated anti-activated factor X (anti-Xa) activity for Riva. We compared the results with patient samples.RESULTS: Results of Dabi samples were reported by 73 laboratories (13 INR and 9 APTT reagents) and Riva samples by 22 laboratories (5 INR and 4 APTT reagents). Both NOACs increased INR values; the increase was modest, albeit larger, for Dabi, with higher CV, especially with Quick (vs Owren) methods. Both NOACs dose-dependently prolonged the APTT. Again, the prolongation and CVs were larger for Dabi. The INR and APTT results varied reagent-dependently (P < 0.005), with less prolongation in patient samples. TT results (Dabi) and calibrated anti-Xa results (Riva) were reported by only 11 and 8 laboratories, respectively.CONCLUSIONS: The screening tests INR and APTT are suboptimal in assessing NOACs, having high reagent dependence and low sensitivity and specificity. They may provide information, if laboratories recognize their limitations. The variation will likely increase and the sensitivity differ in clinical samples. Specific assays measure NOACs accurately; however, few laboratories applied them.

Concepts: Positive predictive value, Type I and type II errors, Sensitivity and specificity, Coagulation, Warfarin, Prothrombin time, Partial thromboplastin time

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INTRODUCTION: We previously derived and validated the AIMS65 score, a mortality prognostic scale for upper GI bleeding (UGIB). OBJECTIVE: To validate the AIMS65 score in a different patient population and compare it with the Glasgow-Blatchford risk score (GBRS). DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. PATIENTS: Adults with a primary diagnosis of UGIB. MAIN OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS: Primary outcome: inpatient mortality. Secondary outcomes: composite clinical endpoint of inpatient mortality, rebleeding, and endoscopic, radiologic or surgical intervention; blood transfusion; intensive care unit admission; rebleeding; length of stay; timing of endoscopy. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was calculated for each score. RESULTS: Of the 278 study patients, 6.5% died and 35% experienced the composite clinical endpoint. The AIMS65 score was superior in predicting inpatient mortality (AUROC, 0.93 vs 0.68; P < .001), whereas the GBRS was superior in predicting blood transfusions (AUROC, 0.85 vs 0.65; P < .01) The 2 scores were similar in predicting the composite clinical endpoint (AUROC, 0.62 vs 0.68; P = .13) as well as the secondary outcomes. A GBRS of 10 and 12 or more maximized the sum of the sensitivity and specificity for inpatient mortality and rebleeding, respectively. The cutoff was 2 or more for the AIMS65 score for both outcomes. LIMITATIONS: Retrospective, single-center study. CONCLUSION: The AIMS65 score is superior to the GBRS in predicting inpatient mortality from UGIB, whereas the GBRS is superior for predicting blood transfusion. Both scores are similar in predicting the composite clinical endpoint and other outcomes in clinical care and resource use.

Concepts: Cohort study, Blood, Surgery, Type I and type II errors, Sensitivity and specificity, Binary classification, Blood transfusion, Upper gastrointestinal bleeding