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Concept: Relative survival

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: Survival and prognostic factors were analyzed in 315 patients with esophageal cancer undergoing thoracoscopic-assisted esophagectomy (TAE). The 5-year survival rate of 57.8% was satisfactory, indicating the oncological feasibility of TAE. Perioperative outcomes affected overall survival in the whole cohort but not in the subgroup treated with 2 endoscopic stages.

Concepts: Cancer staging, Medical terms, Obesity, Survival rate, Esophageal cancer, Five-year survival rate, Esophagectomy, Relative survival

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Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) has a dismal 5-year survival rate of 5%. There is an urgent need for early detection while the tumors are small and surgically resectable. We assessed serum osteopontin (OPN) and tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase 1 (TIMP-1) as possible diagnostic and prognostic biomarkers in a novel cohort of patients with pancreatic cancer.

Concepts: Cancer, Lung cancer, Medical terms, Weight loss, Pancreatic cancer, Survival rate, Five-year survival rate, Relative survival

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Background: Distant metastatic breast cancer (MBC), including metastases found at diagnosis (de novo) and those occurring later (recurrence), represents the most severe form of the disease, when resource utilization is most intensive. Yet, the number of women living with MBC in the United States is unknown. The objective of this article is to use population-based data to estimate the prevalence of MBC.Methods: We used a back-calculation method to estimate MBC prevalence from U.S. breast cancer mortality and survival from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) registries. On the basis of the illness-death process, this method assumes that each observed breast cancer death is the result of MBC, either de novo or a recurrence with metastatic disease.Results: We estimate that by January 1, 2017, there will be 154,794 women living with MBC in the United States, three in four initially diagnosed with stage I-III breast cancer who later progressed to MBC.Median survival and 5-year relative survival for de novo MBC increased over the years, especially in younger women. We estimate a two-fold increase in 5-year relative survival rate from 18% to 36%, for women diagnosed with de novo MBC at age 15-49 between 1992-1994 and 2005-2012, respectively.Conclusions: This study demonstrates an increasing number of women in the United States living with MBC, likely the result of improvements in treatment and aging of the U.S.

Concepts: Epidemiology, Cancer, Breast cancer, Metastasis, Medical statistics, United States, Five-year survival rate, Relative survival

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Since the sinking of the Titanic, there has been a widespread belief that the social norm of “women and children first” (WCF) gives women a survival advantage over men in maritime disasters, and that captains and crew members give priority to passengers. We analyze a database of 18 maritime disasters spanning three centuries, covering the fate of over 15,000 individuals of more than 30 nationalities. Our results provide a unique picture of maritime disasters. Women have a distinct survival disadvantage compared with men. Captains and crew survive at a significantly higher rate than passengers. We also find that: the captain has the power to enforce normative behavior; there seems to be no association between duration of a disaster and the impact of social norms; women fare no better when they constitute a small share of the ship’s complement; the length of the voyage before the disaster appears to have no impact on women’s relative survival rate; the sex gap in survival rates has declined since World War I; and women have a larger disadvantage in British shipwrecks. Taken together, our findings show that human behavior in life-and-death situations is best captured by the expression “every man for himself.”

Concepts: Sociology, Heteronormativity, Survival rate, Convention, Relative survival, Norm

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A diagnosis of pancreatic cancer is devastating owing to its poor prognosis, with a 5-year survival rate of only 9%. Currently, most individuals are diagnosed at a late stage when treatment options are limited. Early detection of pancreatic cancer provides the greatest hope for making substantial improvements in survival. The Kenner Family Research Fund in partnership with the American Pancreatic Association has sponsored a series of fora to stimulate discussion and collaboration on early detection of pancreatic cancer. At the first forum in 2014, “Early Detection of Sporadic Pancreatic Cancer Summit Conference,” a strategic plan was set forth by an international group of interdisciplinary scientific representatives and subsequently The Strategic Map for Innovation was generated. The current conference report is the third forum in the series, “Early Detection of Pancreatic Cancer: The Role of Industry in the Development of Biomarkers,” which was held in Boston, Massachusetts, on October 27, 2016. This report provides an overview of examples of innovative initiatives by industry and confirms the critical need for collaboration among industry, government, research institutions, and advocacy groups in order to make pancreatic cancer more easily detectable in its earlier stages, when it is more treatable.This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives License 4.0 (CCBY-NC-ND), where it is permissible to download and share the work provided it is properly cited. The work cannot be changed in any way or used commercially without permission from the journal.

Concepts: Cancer staging, Medical terms, Pancreatic cancer, Survival rate, Five-year survival rate, Relative survival, Creative Commons, Lawrence Lessig

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Progress in the treatment of pancreatic adenocarcinoma has been minimal; it remains the only major cancer type with a 5-year survival rate of less than 10%.

Concepts: Clinical trial, The Canon of Medicine, ClinicalTrials.gov, Evaluation methods, Pancreatic cancer, Survival rate, Five-year survival rate, Relative survival

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Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) is indicated for patients with aortic stenosis who are intermediate-high surgical risk. Although all-cause mortality rates after TAVI are established, survival attributable to the procedure is unclear because of competing causes of mortality. The aim was to report relative survival (RS) after TAVI, which accounts for background mortality risks in a matched general population.

Concepts: Epidemiology, Medical statistics, Risk, Actuarial science, Investment, Relative survival

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Retinoblastoma has a 5-year survival rate exceeding 95%, yet little is known about long-term functional outcomes for these patients.

Concepts: Medical terms, Cognition, Knowledge, Survival rate, Five-year survival rate, Relative survival

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The widespread use of high-dose therapy and autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT) as well as the introduction of novel agents have significantly improved outcomes in multiple myeloma (MM) enabling long-term survival. We here analyze factors influencing survival in 865 newly diagnosed MM patients who underwent first-line ASCT at our center between 1993 and 2014. Relative survival and conditional survival were assessed to further characterize long-term survivors. Achievement of complete response (CR) post-ASCT was associated with prolonged progression-free survival (PFS) in the whole cohort and with significantly superior overall survival (OS) in the subgroup of patients receiving novel agent-based induction therapy. Landmark analyses performed at 1, 3, and 5 years post-ASCT revealed that sustainment of any response had a highly significant influence on survival with no significant differences between sustained CR and sustained inferior responses. Furthermore, outcome was independently improved by administration of maintenance therapy. A subset of patients did experience long-term survival >15 years. However, conditional survival demonstrated a persistent risk of myeloma-associated death and cumulative relative survival curves did not show development of a clear plateau, even in prognostically advantageous groups. In conclusion, in this large retrospective study, sustained response after first-line ASCT was found to be a major prognostic factor for OS independent of depth of sustained response. Administration of maintenance therapy further improved outcome, supporting the hypothesis that interventions to prolong responses achieved post-ASCT may be essential to reach long-term survival, especially in the setting of persisting residual disease.

Concepts: Multiple myeloma, Epidemiology, Medical statistics, Bone marrow, Outcome, Sustain, Relative survival

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Purpose Patients who are diagnosed with stage IV metastatic melanoma have an estimated 5-year relative survival rate of only 17%. Randomized controlled trials of recent US Food and Drug Administration-approved immune checkpoint inhibitors-pembrolizumab (PEM), nivolumab (NIVO), and ipilumumab (IPI)-demonstrate improved patient outcomes, but the optimal treatment sequence in patients with BRAF wild-type metastatic melanoma remains unclear. To inform policy makers about the value of these treatments, we developed a Markov model to compare the cost-effectiveness of different strategies for sequencing novel agents for the treatment of advanced melanoma. Materials and Methods We developed Markov models by using a US-payer perspective and lifetime horizon to estimate costs (2016 US$) and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) for treatment sequences with first-line NIVO, IPI, NIVO + IPI, PEM every 2 weeks, and PEM every 3 weeks. Health states were defined for initial treatment, first and second progression, and death. Rates for drug discontinuation, frequency of adverse events, disease progression, and death obtained from randomized phase III trials were used to determine the likelihood of transition between states. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to evaluate model uncertainty. Results PEM every 3 weeks followed by second-line IPI was both more effective and less costly than dacarbazine followed by IPI then NIVO, or IPI followed by NIVO. Compared with the first-line dacarbazine treatment strategy, NIVO followed by IPI produced an incremental cost effectiveness ratio of $90,871/QALY, and first-line NIVO + IPI followed by carboplatin plus paclitaxel chemotherapy produced an incremental cost effectiveness ratio of $198,867/QALY. Conclusion For patients with treatment-naive BRAF wild-type advanced melanoma, first-line PEM every 3 weeks followed by second-line IPI or first-line NIVO followed by second-line IPI are the most cost-effective, immune-based treatment strategies for metastatic melanoma.

Concepts: Epidemiology, Clinical trial, Costs, Chemotherapy, Melanoma, Cost-effectiveness analysis, Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, Relative survival