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Concept: Incidence

205

A thyroid ultrasound examination programme has been conducted in Fukushima Prefecture, Japan, after the nuclear disaster in 2011. Although remarkably high prevalence of thyroid cancer was observed, no relevant quantitative evaluation was conducted. We calculated the observed/expected (O/E) ratio of thyroid cancer prevalence for the residents aged ≤20 years. Observed prevalence was the number of thyroid cancer cases detected by the programme through the end of April 2015. Expected prevalence was calculated as cumulative incidence by a life-table method using the national estimates of thyroid cancer incidence rate in 2001-10 (prior to the disaster) and the population of Fukushima Prefecture. The underlying assumption was that there was neither nuclear accident nor screening intervention. The observed and estimated prevalence of thyroid cancer among residents aged ≤20 years was 160.1 and 5.2, respectively, giving an O/E ratio of 30.8 [95% confidence interval (CI): 26.2, 35.9]. When the recent increasing trend in thyroid cancer was considered, the overall O/E ratio was 22.2 (95% CI: 18.9, 25.9). The cumulative number of thyroid cancer deaths in Fukushima Prefecture, estimated with the same method (annual average in 2009-13), was 0.6 under age 40. Combined with the existing knowledge about radiation effect on thyroid cancer, our descriptive analysis suggests the possibility of overdiagnosis. Evaluation including individual-level analysis is required to further clarify the contribution of underlying factors.

Concepts: Epidemiology, Medical statistics, Chernobyl disaster, Incidence, Prevalence, Denominator data, Fukushima Prefecture, Tōhoku region

178

BACKGROUND: Bacteraemia is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in critically ill children. Our objective was to assess whether daily bathing in chlorhexidine gluconate (CHG) compared with standard bathing practices would reduce bacteraemia in critically ill children. METHODS: In an unmasked, cluster-randomised, two-period crossover trial, ten paediatric intensive-care units at five hospitals in the USA were randomly assigned a daily bathing routine for admitted patients older than 2 months, either standard bathing practices or using a cloth impregnated with 2% CHG, for a 6-month period. Units switched to the alternative bathing method for a second 6-month period. 6482 admissions were screened for eligibility. The primary outcome was an episode of bacteraemia. We did intention-to-treat (ITT) and per-protocol (PP) analyses. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (identifier NCT00549393). FINDINGS: 1521 admitted patients were excluded because their length of stay was less than 2 days, and 14 refused to participate. 4947 admissions were eligible for analysis. In the ITT population, a non-significant reduction in incidence of bacteraemia was noted with CHG bathing (3·52 per 1000 days, 95% CI 2·64-4·61) compared with standard practices (4·93 per 1000 days, 3·91-6·15; adjusted incidence rate ratio [aIRR] 0·71, 95% CI 0·42-1·20). In the PP population, incidence of bacteraemia was lower in patients receiving CHG bathing (3·28 per 1000 days, 2·27-4·58) compared with standard practices (4·93 per 1000 days, 3·91-6·15; aIRR 0·64, 0·42-0·98). No serious study-related adverse events were recorded, and the incidence of CHG-associated skin reactions was 1·2 per 1000 days (95% CI 0·60-2·02). INTERPRETATION: Critically ill children receiving daily CHG bathing had a lower incidence of bacteraemia compared with those receiving a standard bathing routine. Furthermore, the treatment was well tolerated. FUNDING: Sage Products, US National Institutes of Health.

Concepts: Epidemiology, Clinical trial, Mortality rate, Medical statistics, Crossover study, Incidence, Chlorhexidine

162

Objective To determine the attributable risk of community acquired pneumonia on incidence of heart failure throughout the age range of affected patients and severity of the infection.Design Cohort study.Setting Six hospitals and seven emergency departments in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, 2000-02.Participants 4988 adults with community acquired pneumonia and no history of heart failure were prospectively recruited and matched on age, sex, and setting of treatment (inpatient or outpatient) with up to five adults without pneumonia (controls) or prevalent heart failure (n=23 060).Main outcome measures Risk of hospital admission for incident heart failure or a combined endpoint of heart failure or death up to 2012, evaluated using multivariable Cox proportional hazards analyses.Results The average age of participants was 55 years, 2649 (53.1%) were men, and 63.4% were managed as outpatients. Over a median of 9.9 years (interquartile range 5.9-10.6), 11.9% (n=592) of patients with pneumonia had incident heart failure compared with 7.4% (n=1712) of controls (adjusted hazard ratio 1.61, 95% confidence interval 1.44 to 1.81). Patients with pneumonia aged 65 or less had the lowest absolute increase (but greatest relative risk) of heart failure compared with controls (4.8% v 2.2%; adjusted hazard ratio 1.98, 95% confidence interval 1.5 to 2.53), whereas patients with pneumonia aged more than 65 years had the highest absolute increase (but lowest relative risk) of heart failure (24.8% v 18.9%; adjusted hazard ratio 1.55, 1.36 to 1.77). Results were consistent in the short term (90 days) and intermediate term (one year) and whether patients were treated in hospital or as outpatients.Conclusion Our results show that community acquired pneumonia substantially increases the risk of heart failure across the age and severity range of cases. This should be considered when formulating post-discharge care plans and preventive strategies, and assessing downstream episodes of dyspnoea.

Concepts: Epidemiology, Survival analysis, Hospital, Medical statistics, Risk, Relative risk, Incidence, Hazard ratio

158

Leptospirosis is an important but neglected bacterial zoonosis that has been largely overlooked in Africa. In this systematic review, we aimed to summarise and compare current knowledge of: (1) the geographic distribution, prevalence, incidence and diversity of acute human leptospirosis in Africa; and (2) the geographic distribution, host range, prevalence and diversity of Leptospira spp. infection in animal hosts in Africa.

Concepts: Epidemiology, Disease, Human, Africa, Incidence, Leptospira, Natural reservoir, Leptospirosis

136

The prevalence and microbial pattern reported for Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) differ considerably and contemporary situation remains changing over time. We therefore searched both international and domestic databases for relevant references and pooled incidence of CAP and etiological distribution were estimated separately between children and adults groups. The results showed that CAP remained a major public health issue in China, with a relatively higher incidence than that reported in Western countries. Although pathogens were not detected in nearly half of patients, Mycoplasma pneumoniae remained to be the most frequently detected agent across age groups, the detection yield of which was lower than that reported from other countries. Notably, the incidence of influenza virus A in adults was almost four times higher than that in children while the prevalence of respiratory syncytial virus was much less common in adults than that in children. Despite some limitations, the value of this review, approaching to systematically review grey published data, is to sketch out the contemporary epidemiological and etiological situation of CAP in our country, which could be useful to help policymakers and clinicians make informed choices and to inspire future studies and surveillance.

Concepts: Public health, Epidemiology, Bacteria, Microbiology, Pneumonia, Incidence, Influenza, Human respiratory syncytial virus

101

The magnitude, consistency, and manner of association between sedentary time and outcomes independent of physical activity remain unclear.

Concepts: Epidemiology, Medical statistics, Systematic review, Actuarial science, Incidence, Meta-analysis, Prevalence

90

This paper aims to estimate the consequences of an additional 20% tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) on health and health care expenditure. Participants were adult (aged > = 20) Australians alive in 2010, who were modelled over their remaining lifetime. We used lifetable-based epidemiological modelling to examine the potential impact of a 20% valoric tax on SSBs on total lifetime disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), incidence, prevalence, and mortality of obesity-related disease, and health care expenditure. Over the lifetime of adult Australian alive in 2010, seemingly modest estimated changes in average body mass as a result of the SSB tax translated to gains of 112,000 health-adjusted life years for men (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 73,000-155,000) and 56,000 (95% UI: 36,000-76,000) for women, and a reduction in overall health care expenditure of AUD609 million (95% UI: 368 million- 870 million). The tax is estimated to reduce the number of new type 2 diabetes cases by approximately 800 per year. Twenty-five years after the introduction of the tax, there would be 4,400 fewer prevalent cases of heart disease and 1,100 fewer persons living with the consequences of stroke, and an estimated 1606 extra people would be alive as a result of the tax. The tax would generate an estimated AUD400 million in revenue each year. Governments should consider increasing the tax on sugared drinks. This would improve population health, reduce health care costs, as well as bring in direct revenue.

Concepts: Health care, Health economics, Medicine, Public health, Health, Epidemiology, Incidence, Prevalence

67

The purposes of this study were to evaluate the association between total testosterone (TT) deficiency and weakness on multimorbidity in men. Analyses were performed to examine the prevalence of multimobidity among young, middle-aged, and older men, with and without testosterone deficiency. Multivariate logistic models were also used to determine the association between age-specific TT tertiles and multimorbidity, adjusting for key sociodemographic variables, as well as a secondary analysis adjusted for grip strength. Multimorbidity was more prevalent among men with testosterone deficiency, compared to normal TT in the entire group (36.6% vs 55.2%; p < 0.001); however, differences were only seen within young (testosterone deficiency: 36.4%; normal TT: 13.5%; p < 0.001) and older men (testosterone deficiency: 75.0%; normal TT: 61.5%; p < 0.001). Robust associations were found between the age-specific low-TT (OR: 2.87; 95%CI: 2.14-3.83) and moderate-TT (OR: 1.67; 95%CI: 1.27-2.20) tertiles (reference high-TT) and multimorbidity. Secondary analysis demonstrated that both low TT (OR: 1.82; 95%CI: 1.29-2.55) and moderate-TT (OR: 1.31; 95%CI: 1.01-1.69) were associated with multimorbidity, even after adjusting for obesity (OR: 1.75; 95%CI: 1.07-2.87) and NGS (OR: 1.21 per 0.05 unit lower NGS). Low TT and weakness in men were independently associated with multimorbidity at all ages; however, multimorbidity was more prevalent among young and older men with testosterone deficiency.

Concepts: Incidence, Testosterone, The Association, Prevalence, Analysis, Logistic function, Grip strength

49

Tinnitus is a common problem for millions of individuals and can cause substantial negative effects on their quality of life. A large epidemiologic study of tinnitus and its management patterns in the US adult population is lacking.

Concepts: Epidemiology, Disease, Biology, Demography, United States, Incidence, Poverty in the United States, U.S. state

43

Over the past ten years the incidence of pertussis in the United States (U.S.) has risen steadily, with 2012 seeing the highest case number since 1955. There has also been a shift over the same time period in the age group reporting the largest number of cases (aside from infants), from adolescents to 7-11 year olds. We use epidemiological modelling and a large case incidence dataset to explain the upsurge. We investigate several hypotheses for the upsurge in pertussis cases by fitting a suite of dynamic epidemiological models to incidence data from the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System (NNDSS) between 1990-2009, as well as incidence data from a variety of sources from 1950-1989. We find that: the best-fitting model is one in which vaccine efficacy and duration of protection of the acellular pertussis (aP) vaccine is lower than that of the whole-cell (wP) vaccine, (efficacy of the first three doses 80% [95% CI: 78%, 82%] versus 90% [95% CI: 87%, 94%]), increasing the rate at which disease is reported to NNDSS is not sufficient to explain the upsurge and 3) 2010-2012 disease incidence is predicted well. In this study, we use all available U.S. surveillance data to: 1) fit a set of mathematical models and determine which best explains these data and 2) determine the epidemiological and vaccine-related parameter values of this model. We find evidence of a difference in efficacy and duration of protection between the two vaccine types, wP and aP (aP efficacy and duration lower than wP). Future refinement of the model presented here will allow for an exploration of alternative vaccination strategies such as different age-spacings, further booster doses, and cocooning.

Concepts: Scientific method, Epidemiology, Mathematics, Vaccine, United States, Incidence, Model, Pertussis