SciCombinator

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Concept: Gabon

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Background Malaria control has not been routinely informed by the assessment of subnational variation in malaria deaths. We combined data from the Malaria Atlas Project and the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate malaria mortality across sub-Saharan Africa on a grid of 5 km(2) from 1990 through 2015. Methods We estimated malaria mortality using a spatiotemporal modeling framework of geolocated data (i.e., with known latitude and longitude) on the clinical incidence of malaria, coverage of antimalarial drug treatment, case fatality rate, and population distribution according to age. Results Across sub-Saharan Africa during the past 15 years, we estimated that there was an overall decrease of 57% (95% uncertainty interval, 46 to 65) in the rate of malaria deaths, from 12.5 (95% uncertainty interval, 8.3 to 17.0) per 10,000 population in 2000 to 5.4 (95% uncertainty interval, 3.4 to 7.9) in 2015. This led to an overall decrease of 37% (95% uncertainty interval, 36 to 39) in the number of malaria deaths annually, from 1,007,000 (95% uncertainty interval, 666,000 to 1,376,000) to 631,000 (95% uncertainty interval, 394,000 to 914,000). The share of malaria deaths among children younger than 5 years of age ranged from more than 80% at a rate of death of more than 25 per 10,000 to less than 40% at rates below 1 per 10,000. Areas with high malaria mortality (>10 per 10,000) and low coverage (<50%) of insecticide-treated bed nets and antimalarial drugs included much of Nigeria, Angola, and Cameroon and parts of the Central African Republic, Congo, Guinea, and Equatorial Guinea. Conclusions We estimated that there was an overall decrease of 57% in the rate of death from malaria across sub-Saharan Africa over the past 15 years and identified several countries in which high rates of death were associated with low coverage of antimalarial treatment and prevention programs. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and others.).

Concepts: Death, Malaria, Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, Equatorial Guinea, Central African Republic, Cameroon, Gabon

36

The large-scale emigration of physicians from sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) to high-income nations is a serious development concern. Our objective was to determine current emigration trends of SSA physicians found in the physician workforce of the United States.

Concepts: Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, North Africa, United States, Southern Africa, Latin America, Morocco, Gabon

28

Severe hearing loss is a global problem affecting particularly developing countries. There is scarcity of recent published data on the epidemiology of childhood deafness in sub-Saharan Africa.

Concepts: Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, North Africa, Hearing impairment, Equatorial Guinea, Audiogram, Gabon, Hearing loss

9

Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) have transformed malaria diagnosis. The most prevalent P. falciparum RDTs detect histidine-rich protein 2 (PfHRP2). However, pfhrp2 gene deletions yielding false-negative RDTs, first reported in South America in 2010, have been confirmed in Africa and Asia. We developed a mathematical model to explore the potential for RDT-led diagnosis to drive selection of pfhrp2-deleted parasites. Low malaria prevalence and high frequencies of people seeking treatment resulted in the greatest selection pressure. Calibrating our model against confirmed pfhrp2-deletions in the Democratic Republic of Congo, we estimate a starting frequency of 6% pfhrp2-deletion prior to RDT introduction. Furthermore, the patterns observed necessitate a degree of selection driven by the introduction of PfHRP2-based RDT-guided treatment. Combining this with parasite prevalence and treatment coverage estimates, we map the model-predicted spread of pfhrp2-deletion, and identify the geographic regions in which surveillance for pfhrp2-deletion should be prioritised.

Concepts: Malaria, Plasmodium falciparum, Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, Plasmodium, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Kinshasa, Gabon

5

More than 30 countries in sub-Saharan Africa have introduced performance-based financing (PBF) in their healthcare systems. Yet, there has been little research on the process by which PBF was put on the national policy agenda in Africa. This study examines the policy process behind the introduction of PBF program in Cameroon.

Concepts: Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, North Africa, Sahara, Southern Africa, Equatorial Guinea, Morocco, Gabon

5

Little is known about how improved depression care affects HIV-related outcomes in Africa. In a sample of depressed HIV patients in a low income, sub-Saharan country, we explored how implementing measurement-based antidepressant care (MBC) affected HIV outcomes over 4 months of antidepressant treatment.

Concepts: HIV, AIDS, Africa, North Africa, Bipolar disorder, Equatorial Guinea, Cameroon, Gabon

5

Development efforts for poverty reduction and food security in sub-Saharan Africa will have to consider future climate change impacts. Large uncertainties in climate change impact assessments do not necessarily complicate, but can inform development strategies. The design of development strategies will need to consider the likelihood, strength, and interaction of climate change impacts across biosphere properties. We here explore the spread of climate change impact projections and develop a composite impact measure to identify hotspots of climate change impacts, addressing likelihood and strength of impacts. Overlapping impacts in different biosphere properties (e.g. flooding, yields) will not only claim additional capacity to respond, but will also narrow the options to respond and develop. Regions with severest projected climate change impacts often coincide with regions of high population density and poverty rates. Science and policy need to propose ways of preparing these areas for development under climate change impacts.

Concepts: Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, North Africa, Poverty, Population density, Human Development Index, Morocco, Gabon

3

Sickle Cell Disease (SCD) is associated with chronic multisystem complications that significantly influence the quality of life (QOL) of patients early in their life. Although sub-Saharan Africa bears 75% of the global burden of SCD, there is a paucity of data on these complications and their effects on the QOL. We aimed to record these chronic complications, to estimate the QOL, and to identify the corresponding risk factors in patients with SCD receiving care in three hospitals in Cameroon.

Concepts: Epidemiology, Malaria, Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, Sickle-cell disease, Equatorial Guinea, Sickle, Gabon

2

It has been estimated that more than 200 million children under the age of five do not reach their full potential in cognitive development. Much of what we know about brain development is based on research from high-income countries. There is limited evidence on the determinants of early child development in low-income countries, especially rural sub-Saharan Africa. The present study aimed to identify the determinants of cognitive development in children living in villages surrounding Haydom, a rural area in north-central Tanzania.

Concepts: Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, North Africa, Developmental psychology, Malawi, Morocco, Gabon, Jean Piaget

2

An increasing number of countries in sub-Saharan Africa are moving towards malaria-elimination, mostly thanks to successful vector control campaigns. However, elimination has proven challenging, resulting in the persistence of malaria transmission. It is now accepted that in order to eliminate malaria, new complementary vector control approaches must be developed. This study describes the development of a sugar-baited resting place containing a toxic dose of ivermectin for the control of Anopheles arabiensis.

Concepts: AIDS, Malaria, Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, North Africa, Anopheles, Morocco, Gabon