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Concept: Environmental impact assessment

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Dietary choices drive both health and environmental outcomes. Information on diets come from many sources, with nationally recommended diets (NRDs) by governmental or similar advisory bodies the most authoritative. Little or no attention is placed on the environmental impacts within NRDs. Here we quantify the impact of nation-specific NRDs, compared with an average diet in 37 nations, representing 64% of global population. We focus on greenhouse gases (GHGs), eutrophication, and land use because these have impacts reaching or exceeding planetary boundaries. We show that compared with average diets, NRDs in high-income nations are associated with reductions in GHG, eutrophication, and land use from 13.0 to 24.8%, 9.8 to 21.3%, and 5.7 to 17.6%, respectively. In upper-middle-income nations, NRDs are associated with slight decrease in impacts of 0.8-12.2%, 7.7-19.4%, and 7.2-18.6%. In poorer middle-income nations, impacts increase by 12.4-17.0%, 24.5-31.9%, and 8.8-14.8%. The reduced environmental impact in high-income countries is driven by reductions in calories (∼54% of effect) and a change in composition (∼46%). The increased environmental impacts of NRDs in low- and middle-income nations are associated with increased intake in animal products. Uniform adoption of NRDs across these nations would result in reductions of 0.19-0.53 Gt CO2 eq⋅a-1, 4.32-10.6 Gt [Formula: see text] eq⋅a-1, and 1.5-2.8 million km2, while providing the health cobenefits of adopting an NRD. As a small number of dietary guidelines are beginning to incorporate more general environmental concerns, we anticipate that this work will provide a standardized baseline for future work to optimize recommended diets further.

Concepts: Carbon dioxide, Agriculture, Nutrition, Natural gas, Greenhouse gas, Nation, Environmental impact assessment, Sovereign state

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Indian Himalayan basins are earmarked for widespread dam building, but aggregate effects of these dams on terrestrial ecosystems are unknown. We mapped distribution of 292 dams (under construction and proposed) and projected effects of these dams on terrestrial ecosystems under different scenarios of land-cover loss. We analyzed land-cover data of the Himalayan valleys, where dams are located. We estimated dam density on fifth- through seventh-order rivers and compared these estimates with current global figures. We used a species-area relation model (SAR) to predict short- and long-term species extinctions driven by deforestation. We used scatter plots and correlation studies to analyze distribution patterns of species and dams and to reveal potential overlap between species-rich areas and dam sites. We investigated effects of disturbance on community structure of undisturbed forests. Nearly 90% of Indian Himalayan valleys would be affected by dam building and 27% of these dams would affect dense forests. Our model projected that 54,117 ha of forests would be submerged and 114,361 ha would be damaged by dam-related activities. A dam density of 0.3247/1000 km(2) would be nearly 62 times greater than current average global figures; the average of 1 dam for every 32 km of river channel would be 1.5 times higher than figures reported for U.S. rivers. Our results show that most dams would be located in species-rich areas of the Himalaya. The SAR model projected that by 2025, deforestation due to dam building would likely result in extinction of 22 angiosperm and 7 vertebrate taxa. Disturbance due to dam building would likely reduce tree species richness by 35%, tree density by 42%, and tree basal cover by 30% in dense forests. These results, combined with relatively weak national environmental impact assessment and implementation, point toward significant loss of species if all proposed dams in the Indian Himalaya are constructed. Efectos Potenciales del Desarrollo Hidroeléctrico Actual y Propuesto sobre la Diversidad Biológica Terrestre en el Himalaya Hindú

Concepts: Biodiversity, River, Extinction, Dam, Impact assessment, Hydroelectricity, Himalayas, Environmental impact assessment

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The persistence of chemicals is a key parameter for their environmental risk assessment. Extrapolating their biodegradability potential in aqueous systems to soil systems would improve the environmental impact assessment. This study compares the fate of (14/13)C-labelled 2,4-D (2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid) and ibuprofen in OECD tests 301 (ready biodegradability in aqueous systems) and 307 (soil). 85% of 2,4-D and 68% of ibuprofen were mineralised in aqueous systems, indicating ready biodegradability, but only 57% and 45% in soil. Parent compounds and metabolites decreased to <2% of the spiked amounts in both systems. In soil, 36% of 2,4-D and 30% of ibuprofen were bound in non-extractable residues (NER). NER formation in the abiotic controls was half as high as in the biotic treatments. However, mineralisation, biodegradation and abiotic residue formation are competing processes. Assuming the same extent of abiotic NER formation in abiotic and biotic systems may therefore overestimate the abiotic contribution in the biotic systems. Mineralisation was described by a logistic model for the aquatic systems and by a two-pool first order degradation model for the soil systems. This agrees with the different abundance of microorganisms in the two systems, but precludes direct comparison of the fitted parameters. Nevertheless, the maximum mineralisable amounts determined by the models were similar in both systems, although the maximum mineralisation rate was about 3.5 times higher in the aqueous systems than in the soil system for both compounds; these parameters may thus be extrapolated from aqueous to soil systems. However, the maximum mineralisable amount is calculated by extrapolation to infinite times and includes intermediately formed biomass derived from the labelled carbon. The amount of labelled carbon within microbial biomass residues is higher in the soil system, resulting in lower degradation rates. Further evaluation of these relationships requires comparison data on more chemicals and from different soils.

Concepts: Evaluation, Soil, Environmental remediation, C, Bioremediation, Impact assessment, Extrapolation, Environmental impact assessment

10

As part of global efforts to reduce dependence on carbon-based energy sources there has been a rapid increase in the installation of renewable energy devices. The installation and operation of these devices can result in conflicts with wildlife. In the marine environment, mammals may avoid wind farms that are under construction or operating. Such avoidance may lead to more time spent travelling or displacement from key habitats. A paucity of data on at-sea movements of marine mammals around wind farms limits our understanding of the nature of their potential impacts.Here, we present the results of a telemetry study on harbour seals Phoca vitulina in The Wash, south-east England, an area where wind farms are being constructed using impact pile driving. We investigated whether seals avoid wind farms during operation, construction in its entirety, or during piling activity. The study was carried out using historical telemetry data collected prior to any wind farm development and telemetry data collected in 2012 during the construction of one wind farm and the operation of another.Within an operational wind farm, there was a close-to-significant increase in seal usage compared to prior to wind farm development. However, the wind farm was at the edge of a large area of increased usage, so the presence of the wind farm was unlikely to be the cause.There was no significant displacement during construction as a whole. However, during piling, seal usage (abundance) was significantly reduced up to 25 km from the piling activity; within 25 km of the centre of the wind farm, there was a 19 to 83% (95% confidence intervals) decrease in usage compared to during breaks in piling, equating to a mean estimated displacement of 440 individuals. This amounts to significant displacement starting from predicted received levels of between 166 and 178 dB re 1 μPa(p-p). Displacement was limited to piling activity; within 2 h of cessation of pile driving, seals were distributed as per the non-piling scenario. Synthesis and applications. Our spatial and temporal quantification of avoidance of wind farms by harbour seals is critical to reduce uncertainty and increase robustness in environmental impact assessments of future developments. Specifically, the results will allow policymakers to produce industry guidance on the likelihood of displacement of seals in response to pile driving; the relationship between sound levels and avoidance rates; and the duration of any avoidance, thus allowing far more accurate environmental assessments to be carried out during the consenting process. Further, our results can be used to inform mitigation strategies in terms of both the sound levels likely to cause displacement and what temporal patterns of piling would minimize the magnitude of the energetic impacts of displacement.

Concepts: Pinniped, Wind power, Wind farm, Floating wind turbine, Wind power in Denmark, Environmental impact assessment, Wind power in the United States, Pile driver

9

Hydraulic fracturing (fracking) has been used extensively in the US and Canada since the 1950s and offers the potential for significant new sources of oil and gas supply. Numerous other countries around the world (including the UK, Germany, China, South Africa, Australia and Argentina) are now giving serious consideration to sanctioning the technique to provide additional security over the future supply of domestic energy. However, relatively high population densities in many countries and the potential negative environmental impacts that may be associated with fracking operations has stimulated controversy and significant public debate regarding if and where fracking should be permitted. Road traffic generated by fracking operations is one possible source of environmental impact whose significance has, until now, been largely neglected in the available literature. This paper therefore presents a scoping-level environmental assessment for individual and groups of fracking sites using a newly-created Traffic Impacts Model (TIM). The model produces estimates of the traffic-related impacts of fracking on greenhouse gas emissions, local air quality emissions, noise and road pavement wear, using a range of hypothetical fracking scenarios to quantify changes in impacts against baseline levels. Results suggest that the local impacts of a single well pad may be short duration but large magnitude. That is, whilst single digit percentile increases in emissions of CO2, NOx and PM are estimated for the period from start of construction to pad completion (potentially several months or years), excess emissions of NOx on individual days of peak activity can reach 30% over baseline. Likewise, excess noise emissions appear negligible (<1dBA) when normalised over the completion period, but may be considerable (+3.4dBA) in particular hours, especially in night-time periods. Larger, regional scale modelling of pad development scenarios over a multi-decade time horizon give modest CO2 emissions that vary between 2.5 and 160.4kT, dependent on the number of wells, and individual well fracking water and flowback waste requirements. The TIM model is designed to be adaptable to any geographic area where the required input data are available (such as fleet characteristics, road type and quality), and we suggest could be deployed as a tool to help reach more informed decisions regarding where and how fracking might take place taking into account the likely scale of traffic-related environmental impacts.

Concepts: Carbon dioxide, Population density, Natural gas, Greenhouse gas, Emission standard, Kyoto Protocol, Environmental impact assessment, Hydraulic fracturing

4

ABSTRACT Seeking economic growth and job creation to tackle the nation’s extreme poverty, the Nicaraguan government awarded a concession to build an inter-oceanic canal and associated projects to a recently formed Hong Kong based company with no track record or related expertise. This concession was awarded without a bidding process and in advance of any feasibility, socio-economic or environmental impact assessments; construction has begun without this information. The 278-km long inter-oceanic canal project may result in significant environmental and social impairments. Of particular concern are: damage to Lake Cocibolca, a unique freshwater tropical lake and Central America’s main freshwater reservoir; damage to regional biodiversity and ecosystems; and socio-economic impacts. Concerned about the possibly irreparable damage to the environment and to native communities, conservationists and the scientific community at large are urging the Nicaraguan government to devise and reveal an action plan to address and mitigate the possible negative repercussions of this inter-oceanic canal and associated projects. Critical research needs are herein identified to inform a comprehensive benefit-cost assessment for this megaproject. Keywords: Nicaragua, interoceanic canal, HKND, environmental impacts, social impacts.

Concepts: Natural environment, Environmentalism, Central America, Nicaragua, Environmental impact assessment, Lake Nicaragua, Ometepe, Managua

2

Environmental impact assessment (EIA) is used globally to manage the impacts of development projects on the environment, so there is an imperative to demonstrate that it can effectively identify risky projects. However, despite the widespread use of quantitative predictive risk models in areas such as toxicology, ecosystem modelling and water quality, the use of predictive risk tools to assess the overall expected environmental impacts of major construction and development proposals is comparatively rare. A risk-based approach has many potential advantages, including improved prediction and attribution of cause and effect; sensitivity analysis; continual learning; and optimal resource allocation. In this paper we investigate the feasibility of using a Bayesian belief network (BBN) to quantify the likelihood and consequence of non-compliance of new projects based on the occurrence probabilities of a set of expert-defined features. The BBN incorporates expert knowledge and continually improves its predictions based on new data as it is collected. We use simulation to explore the trade-off between the number of data points and the prediction accuracy of the BBN, and find that the BBN could predict risk with 90% accuracy using approximately 1000 data points. Although a further pilot test with real project data is required, our results suggest that a BBN is a promising method to monitor overall risks posed by development within an existing EIA process given a modest investment in data collection.

Concepts: Scientific method, Evaluation, Risk, Prediction, Futurology, Prophecy, Bayesian network, Environmental impact assessment

1

Beetles are the most diverse group of animals, and are crucial for ecosystem functioning. In many countries, they are heavily used for environmental impact assessment, but even in the well-studied Central European fauna, species identification can be very difficult. A comprehensive and taxonomically well curated DNA barcode library could remedy this deficit and also could link hundreds of years of traditional knowledge with next generation sequencing technology. However, such a beetle library is missing to date. This study provides the globally largest DNA barcode reference library for Coleoptera for 15,948 individuals belonging to 3,514 well-identified species (53% of the German fauna) with representatives from 97 of 103 families (94%). This study is the first comprehensive regional test of the efficiency of DNA barcoding for beetles with a focus on Germany. Sequences >500bp were recovered from 63% of the specimens analyzed (15,948 of 25,294) with short sequences from another 997 specimens. Whereas mostspecimens (92.2%) could be unambiguously assigned to a single known species by sequence diversity at CO1, 1089 specimens (6.8%) were assigned to more than one Barcode Index Number (BIN), creating 395 BINs which need further study to ascertain if they represent cryptic species, mitochondrial introgression, or simply regional variation in widespread species. We found 409 specimens (2.6%) that shared a BIN assignment with another species, most involving a pair of closely allied species as 43 BINs were involved. Most of these taxa were separated by barcodes although sequence divergences were low. Only 155 specimens (0.97%) show identical or overlapping clusters. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Concepts: Species, Germany, Beetle, DNA barcoding, Barcode, Cryptic species complex, Identification, Environmental impact assessment

0

Strong acid rain was recently observed over Northeastern China, particularly in summer in Liaoning Province where alkaline dust largely neutralized acids in the past. This seems to be related to the regional transboundary pollution and poses new challenges in acid rain control scheme in China. In order to delve into the regional transport impact, and quantify its potential contributions to such an “eruption” of acid rain over Liaoning, this paper employs an online source tagging model in coupling with the Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System (NAQPMS). Validation of predictions shows the model capability in reproducing key meteorological and chemical features. Acid concentration over Liaoning is more pronounced in August (average of 0.087 mg/m3) with strong pollutant import from regional sources against significant depletion of basic species. Seasonal mean contributions from regional sources are assessed at both lower and upper boundary layers to elucidate the main pathways of the impact of regional sources on acid concentration over Liaoning. At the upper layer (1.2 km), regional sources contribute to acid concentration over Liaoning by 67%, mainly from Shandong (16%), Hebei (13%), Tianjin (11%) and Korean Peninsula (9%). Identified main city-receptors in Liaoning are Dandong, Dalian, Chaohu, Yingkou, Liaoyang, Jinfu, Shengyang, Panjin, Tieling, Benxi, Anshan and Fushun. At lower layer (120 m) where Liaoning local contribution is dominant (58%), regional sources account for 39% in acid concentration. However, inter-municipal acid exchanges are prominent at this layer and many cities in Liaoning are revealed as important sources of local acid production. Seasonal acid contribution average within 1.2 km-120 m attains 55%, suggesting dominance of vertical pollutant transport from regional sources towards lower boundary layer in Liaoning. As direct environmental implication, this study provides policy makers with a perspective of regulating the regional transboundary environmental impact assessment in China with application to acid rain control.

Concepts: Acid, Pollution, Northeast China, Liaoning, Hebei, Environmental impact assessment, Shenyang, Dalian

0

Radiation from the deposited radionuclides is indispensable information for environmental impact assessment of nuclear power plants and emergency management during nuclear accidents. Ground shine estimation is related to multiple physical processes, including atmospheric dispersion, deposition, soil and air radiation shielding. It still remains unclear that whether the normally adopted “infinite plane” source assumption for the ground shine calculation is accurate enough, especially for the area with highly heterogeneous deposition distribution near the release point. In this study, a new ground shine calculation scheme, which accounts for both the spatial deposition distribution and the properties of air and soil layers, is developed based on point kernel method. Two sets of “detector-centered” grids are proposed and optimized for both the deposition and radiation calculations to better simulate the results measured by the detectors, which will be beneficial for the applications such as source term estimation. The evaluation against the available data of Monte Carlo methods in the literature indicates that the errors of the new scheme are within 5% for the key radionuclides in nuclear accidents. The comparisons between the new scheme and “infinite plane” assumption indicate that the assumption is tenable (relative errors within 20%) for the area located 1 km away from the release source. Within 1 km range, the assumption mainly causes errors for wet deposition and the errors are independent of rain intensities. The results suggest that the new scheme should be adopted if the detectors are within 1 km from the source under the stable atmosphere (classes E and F), or the detectors are within 500 m under slightly unstable (class C) or neutral (class D) atmosphere. Otherwise, the infinite plane assumption is reasonable since the relative errors induced by this assumption are within 20%. The results here are only based on theoretical investigations. They should be further thoroughly evaluated with real measurements in the future.

Concepts: Mathematics, Nuclear physics, Chernobyl disaster, Nuclear power, Lists of nuclear disasters and radioactive incidents, Nuclear safety, Environmental impact assessment, Three Mile Island accident