SciCombinator

Discover the most talked about and latest scientific content & concepts.

S Sanche, YT Lin, C Xu, E Romero-Severson, N Hengartner and R Ke
Abstract
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is the causative agent of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease pandemic. Initial estimates of the early dynamics of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, suggested a doubling time of the number of infected persons of 6-7 days and a basic reproductive number (R0) of 2.2-2.7. We collected extensive individual case reports across China and estimated key epidemiologic parameters, including the incubation period. We then designed 2 mathematical modeling approaches to infer the outbreak dynamics in Wuhan by using high-resolution domestic travel and infection data. Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3-3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6-9 days, we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8-8.9). We further show that active surveillance, contact tracing, quarantine, and early strong social distancing efforts are needed to stop transmission of the virus.
Tweets*
13319
Facebook likes*
8
Reddit*
28
News coverage*
97
Blogs*
10
SC clicks
0
Concepts
-
MeSH headings
-
comments powered by Disqus

* Data courtesy of Altmetric.com