SciCombinator

Discover the most talked about and latest scientific content & concepts.

Hurricane Sandy’s flood frequency increasing from year 1800 to 2100

OPEN Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America | 30 Oct 2016

N Lin, RE Kopp, BP Horton and JP Donnelly
Abstract
Coastal flood hazard varies in response to changes in storm surge climatology and the sea level. Here we combine probabilistic projections of the sea level and storm surge climatology to estimate the temporal evolution of flood hazard. We find that New York City’s flood hazard has increased significantly over the past two centuries and is very likely to increase more sharply over the 21st century. Due to the effect of sea level rise, the return period of Hurricane Sandy’s flood height decreased by a factor of ∼3× from year 1800 to 2000 and is estimated to decrease by a further ∼4.4× from 2000 to 2100 under a moderate-emissions pathway. When potential storm climatology change over the 21st century is also accounted for, Sandy’s return period is estimated to decrease by ∼3× to 17× from 2000 to 2100.
Tweets*
17
Facebook likes*
3
Reddit*
0
News coverage*
65
Blogs*
13
SC clicks
0
Concepts
Oceanography, Storm, Statistics, New York City, Tropical cyclone, Flood, Storm surge, 21st century
MeSH headings
-
comments powered by Disqus

* Data courtesy of Altmetric.com