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Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era

OPEN Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America | 24 Feb 2016

RE Kopp, AC Kemp, K Bittermann, BP Horton, JP Donnelly, WR Gehrels, CC Hay, JX Mitrovica, ED Morrow and S Rahmstorf
Abstract
We assess the relationship between temperature and global sea-level (GSL) variability over the Common Era through a statistical metaanalysis of proxy relative sea-level reconstructions and tide-gauge data. GSL rose at 0.1 ± 0.1 mm/y (2σ) over 0-700 CE. A GSL fall of 0.2 ± 0.2 mm/y over 1000-1400 CE is associated with ∼0.2 °C global mean cooling. A significant GSL acceleration began in the 19th century and yielded a 20th century rise that is extremely likely (probability [Formula: see text]) faster than during any of the previous 27 centuries. A semiempirical model calibrated against the GSL reconstruction indicates that, in the absence of anthropogenic climate change, it is extremely likely ([Formula: see text]) that 20th century GSL would have risen by less than 51% of the observed [Formula: see text] cm. The new semiempirical model largely reconciles previous differences between semiempirical 21st century GSL projections and the process model-based projections summarized in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report.
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Concepts
Statistics, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 20th century, 19th century, Centuries, 21st century, Climate change, Global warming
MeSH headings
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